GamblingNews
LCA Consultores: Brazil's online gambling ban puts BRL73bn in tax revenue and 15,500 jobs at risk
A study by LCA Consultores estimates that Provisional Measure No. 1394 could cost Brazil up to BRL73 billion in tax contributions over four years. It also puts 15,500 jobs at risk and could expose the state to licence-fee compensation claims.
A new study by the consultancy LCA Consultores warns that the provisional ban on online gambling ordered by President Lula da Silva could carry a heavy economic cost. The study estimates that as much as BRL73 billion in tax contributions could be lost over the next four years, a figure the source converts to about $14.7 billion.
The analysis, which focuses on the immediate effects of Provisional Measure No. 1394, also counts 15,500 direct and indirect jobs at risk. Of these, 10,000 are tied directly to the online gambling industry and 5,500 are indirect positions linked to the sector. According to the study's authors, the direct jobs alone account for roughly BRL460 million a year in salaries, around $92 million.
The consultancy also points to possible legal and financial exposure for the state. Sports betting and online casino companies could seek compensation of about BRL2.55 billion, or $512 million, over licence fees for the remaining terms of their authorisations. The report further highlights sports sponsorship. Gambling companies put more than BRL1.1 billion, about $221 million, into funding and sponsoring Brazil's Serie A football league in 2025 alone.
The study also raises a consumer protection concern. It argues that most active players in the regulated market are preparing to move to unregulated websites. That would leave Brazil facing the problem of people gambling without safeguards or responsible gambling tools.
The findings arrive amid a tense political backdrop. Lula is seeking re-election against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro. Critics have said Lula is using the gambling industry as a populist target to improve his standing in the polls. Lula finished the first round, held on October 4, 2026, about two points behind Bolsonaro, and the second round is scheduled for October 25, 2026.
The source notes that the measure's impact is already being felt and suggests it may struggle to survive congressional review. It also suggests a change of president could affect its future. The study's purpose, according to the report, is to underline the scale of the consequences for an industry that took off with the government's support after Lula returned to office in 2023.
Based on reporting by GamblingNews.