Catena Media cuts 2026 outlook after weak Q3, citing search shifts and lower operator marketing spend

Catena Media, a leading gambling affiliate business, has revised its financial guidance for 2026 after reporting a weak third quarter. The company said the organic double-digit revenue growth it had previously expected is now unlikely, and it adjusted its EBITDA growth outlook accordingly.

Chief Executive Manuel Stan described the period in blunt terms. "This was a weak quarter, and our results reflect that," he said, adding that the search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift. As a predominantly cost-per-acquisition (CPA) based business, he explained, Catena Media feels the effects of such changes immediately and in full.

According to Stan, search engines are changing in ways that clash with traditional discoverability behaviour and algorithms, making it harder for legacy affiliates to lift brand visibility. He linked a significant drop in traffic to two factors: the growth of AI-assisted personalised search, and the way search engines now treat lower-relevance content in their results pages.

The pressure has not come only from search. Operators have also trimmed their marketing budgets, which has weighed on the affiliate partners that depend on them for revenue.

Catena Media says it is responding rather than waiting for conditions to improve. The company is working to reduce its reliance on search by broadening its revenue base, including through the newly announced TraffiqX project and new verticals such as prediction markets. It also plans to keep strengthening its brands by investing in customer loyalty programmes.

The business has announced several rounds of layoffs in recent months, the latest affecting five positions. The current year marks a clear reversal from last year, when Catena Media reported strong results following the reorganisation and reset it carried out in 2025.