Podcast: NFL handle flat as prediction markets take a growing share, and a debate on gambling M&A value

The latest episode of iGaming Business's Right to the Source podcast, hosted by Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin, looks at the impact of prediction markets on NFL betting and at the value of mergers and acquisitions in the industry. It follows the previous episode's interview with Nigel Eccles, and the hosts again touch on FanDuel.

Birkin presented an unreleased prediction market data set from H2. According to those figures, NFL sportsbook handle is roughly flat for the year: up 0.4% in reporting states, and down 1% once Florida is included. The net result reflects around 4% organic growth offset by a headwind of 4% to 5% from prediction markets.

Prediction markets are also claiming a larger portion of overall wagering. Their share of the combined handle in regulated states has risen from about 5% six months ago to roughly 15%. The episode attributes much of the increase to aggressive spending around the World Cup and through August. The hosts also discuss which state feels the biggest headwind, hinting only that it has a warmer climate.

The conversation then turns to the legal uncertainty around prediction markets. Birkin relays views from a recent trip to the US, where many people expect the dispute between individual states and the CFTC to reach the Supreme Court around 2027-28. Developments are already under way: as reported by Matt Rybaltowski, the NFL has filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to review Flaherty vs KalshiEx, LLC.

The episode closes with an exchange on acquisitions in the sector. Harrison and Birkin compare several recent deals, including the earlier merger of Banijay and Tipico, using Flutter as the central case study. Birkin argues that nobody has proven that Flutter's acquisitions created value beyond FanDuel. The hosts also consider where Lottomatica's acquisition of Cirsa fits into that debate and give their verdict in the episode.