Stifel: Prediction market taker volume grew 27% in September, trailing 43% rise in sportsbook handle

Prediction markets saw trading volumes climb in September, but sportsbooks grew faster, according to analysis from financial services firm Stifel. The findings have raised questions about how well the newer platforms can attract and keep sports bettors.

Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial focused on taker volume, which counts trades initiated by users accepting existing offers. The measure is seen as more comparable to sportsbook handle than total notional trading volume. Taker volume on regulated prediction markets was up 27% month over month, while sportsbook handle rose 43% in the states that had reported September figures. Stifel estimated taker volume at $17.7 billion, based on the relationship between taker activity and total notional trading on the two largest US platforms. Total prediction market volume rose 64% to $77 billion.

September marks the start of the American football season, which typically lifts betting activity. Stifel noted that although prediction market products have improved and hundreds of millions of dollars have gone into customer acquisition, retail trading has not yet grown at a comparable pace. Stantial suggested the numbers may point to a limited pool of potential customers, and warned that operators could find it harder to retain users who suffer large losses once promotional incentives lose their effect.

Sports contracts still make up most of the activity. Single-event sports contracts traded under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight rose 23% to $22.8 billion. Trading in combinations of outcomes, which work much like sportsbook parlays, jumped 122% to $41.6 billion.

Smaller operators made limited progress. Rothera, co-owned by Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group, did not capture substantial new share. DraftKings' platform DKeX recorded a 2% increase in notional volume. Novig reached a 1.9% market share, helped by an advertising campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney that coincided with a surge in app downloads and first-time deposits, although the data does not show how much of the growth the campaign drove.

The results contrast with a more bullish outlook from Macquarie. Earlier in October the firm raised its 2026 prediction market taker volume forecast to $190 billion from $169 billion, against $22 billion in 2025, and expects about 80% of it to come from sports contracts. Macquarie also identified regulatory uncertainty as a key obstacle, notably whether sports event contracts fall under federal commodities rules or state gambling laws.