Reuters/Ipsos poll: most Americans oppose prediction market bets on elections, military action and government decisions

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests most Americans are uncomfortable with the use of prediction markets to wager on elections, military operations and government decisions. The findings may complicate efforts by the sector to broaden its public appeal, and indicate that commercial growth does not translate into public approval for turning every political outcome into a tradable contract.

The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 5. Opposition to election betting cut across party lines, with roughly 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans firmly against it. Some 65% of respondents opposed wagers on US military action and 63% were against contracts on government decisions. Only 8% backed military-related wagers, while 9% said they did not mind bets on government announcements.

Political event contracts drew attention during the 2024 presidential election, when bettors placed hundreds of millions of dollars on them. Since then, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have moved beyond election forecasting into a wide range of political, economic and sporting events. That rapid growth has raised concerns about insider trading, market manipulation and the misuse of confidential government information.

The expansion has also sparked a dispute over regulatory authority. Several state gambling regulators have challenged sports-related contracts, arguing they are indistinguishable from gambling and should fall under state betting laws. Prediction platforms are contesting these challenges in court, maintaining that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sole jurisdiction over the sector.

Security worries add to the unease. An August Reuters investigation found that more than 150 Polymarket International accounts may have used insider knowledge on military matters to win trades. Together with betting controversies linked to US involvement in Venezuela and Iran, this has led some experts to question whether existing safeguards are adequate.

Kalshi and Polymarket both say they monitor suspicious activity, cooperate with authorities and act against offending accounts. Kalshi, for example, banned former Republican Representative George Santos, who agreed to pay $35,000 to settle government allegations involving manipulative trading. Even so, the poll indicates that many Americans remain unsure whether the sector can prevent abuse.