Wolfe Research: Wynn Al Marjan Island could beat revenue forecasts, sees shares up to 60% higher by end-2027

Wynn Resorts may earn more gaming revenue from its planned Wynn Al Marjan Island resort in the United Arab Emirates than the company currently projects, according to Wolfe Research. Analyst Peter Supino points to the emerging market and to Singapore, where a small number of integrated resorts have produced strong results.

The assessment comes as Wynn shares are down about 37% year-to-date in 2026. Wolfe Research expects a strong rebound and sees the stock gaining as much as 60% by the end of 2027. Its price target of $128 is based on 8.5 times projected 2028 adjusted EBITDA plus the value of the UAE investment. Wolfe values Wynn's 40% stake in the development at around $48 per share.

Supino argues that the UAE has considerable tourism potential and demand for high-end hotels, entertainment and regulated casino gaming. Knight Frank data cited in the report indicate that luxury rooms will make up 43% of the country's planned hotel room additions through 2030, and about one third of the world's population lives within a four-hour flight. Wolfe compares the market with Singapore, which has strong tourism demand but few casino resorts and is home to Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa. Industry projections suggest the UAE could eventually host four or five casino resorts, which could let Wynn capture a sizeable share of gaming revenue in its early years.

Earlier estimates put annual gross gaming revenue in the UAE at $3 billion to $5 billion as more properties open. Wynn's December 2025 projections indicated that the Al Marjan Island property could generate up to $1.66 billion in annual gaming revenue, with adjusted property EBITDA after management fees of $390 million to $570 million a year.

The outlook carries risks. Supino sees pressure on near-term results in Macau, where Wynn owns two integrated resorts, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add uncertainty to the UAE expansion. Wynn said in March that construction continued after a brief pause linked to the regional conflict involving Iran.

The resort, located off the coast of Ras Al Khaimah and valued at about $5.7 billion, is scheduled to open in September 2027. It is expected to be the first integrated resort in the Middle East with a licensed commercial casino. Wolfe says the market has not yet priced in the project's potential.