Brazil betting ban could cost public finances R$18.2bn, nearly triple the government's R$6.8bn estimate, BNLData says

A possible ban on betting companies in Brazil could hurt public finances far more than the government has indicated, according to data compiled by BNLData. The Ministry of Planning puts the revenue loss at R$6.8 billion from the end of 2026 to the end of 2027, while BNLData's estimate, built on official collection figures, is R$18.2 billion for the same period.

Planning Minister Bruno Moretti confirmed the government's estimate in an interview published in Valor on October 19. It includes R$1.5 billion in lost revenue in late 2026 and R$5.3 billion in 2027. He also said the government is looking at reducing spending tied to betting revenue to limit the effect on the federal budget.

BNLData notes that the R$5.3 billion figure covers only money earmarked for legal beneficiaries under Law No. 14,790/2023, such as programs in sports, tourism, public security, health, education and social security. These beneficiaries received an average of R$413.5 million a month in the 12 months to June 2026. Applying the 14% gross gaming revenue allocation rate set for 2027 in Complementary Law No. 224/2025 gives about R$5.3 billion a year. BNLData says this is not a measure of the total loss to the federal government.

The government's calculation also leaves out other federal revenue from regulated operators. Taxes such as corporate income tax, social contribution on net profit, PIS/Cofins and social security contributions totalled R$9.95 billion in 2025. The inspection fee raised R$105 million and operator authorizations R$30 million, with the authorizations valid for five years. Federal revenue from the sector reached R$7.284 billion in the first half of 2026. A ban would also end future licence renewals and new licensing income, and could expose the state to compensation claims.

Moretti said the estimates assume restrictions will reduce betting activity, but the data does not show that yet. Gross gaming revenue in the first half of 2026 was R$20.07 billion, up 15.3% year on year, and June set a monthly record of R$513 million allocated to legal beneficiaries. A financial institution consulted by Valor estimates a lower but still larger impact of R$11.2 billion in 2027, assuming some betting spend returns as taxable consumption.

The debate comes as the government prepares 2027 budget adjustments. The Independent Fiscal Institution projects a R$86.1 billion deficit for 2027, while the budget proposal targets a surplus of R$18.6 billion. IFI director Alexandre Andrade warned that without changes to mandatory spending rules, cuts would fall first on investment and operating expenses.