Macquarie lifts 2026 prediction market taker volume forecast to $190bn, citing regulation as main risk

Macquarie has increased its estimate for prediction market activity in 2026 to $190 billion, up from an earlier projection of $169 billion. The figure refers to taker volume, which is generated by participants who accept existing orders rather than provide liquidity. Retail and recreational traders make up much of this group, while professional traders and liquidity providers are generally classed as makers. If the forecast is met, it would be a sharp rise from the $22 billion recorded in 2025.

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said the revised outlook reflects continued expansion across the sector. The firm also notes that prediction market platforms are moving closer to the offering of traditional sportsbooks as they add new products. One example is customizable same-game parlays, a feature that has become standard among online sportsbooks and lets users combine several outcomes from one sporting event.

Recent figures support the upbeat view. In the first week of September, taker volume reached $4.3 billion, before the 2026 NFL season had begun. Once the football campaign started, the market set a new daily record on the opening Sunday. Macquarie links the strong September to a surge in activity during the World Cup and growth in several yes-or-no contract markets.

Sports contracts are expected to remain the main driver this year, accounting for about 80% of total taker volume. Over time, however, Macquarie expects the market to rely less on sports. It points to economics, politics, cryptocurrency and entertainment as categories that could give operators more ways to attract users outside major sporting events.

The firm identifies regulation as the largest risk to the industry. Negative court rulings could limit the availability of sports contracts and harm long-term growth. Several operators are already in legal disputes over whether sports event contracts fall under federal commodities law or state gambling rules, and some of those disputes have reached federal appellate courts as companies challenge state attempts to apply gambling regulation to them.

According to legal experts and investors quoted in the analysis, a prediction market case could reach the US Supreme Court within the next six or seven months.