Genius Sports lifts 2026 outlook to over $1bn in revenue after Kalshi and Polymarket deals

Genius Sports has increased its financial guidance for 2026 following a third quarter in which it signed partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction market platforms in the world. The company now expects full-year revenue of between $1.015bn and $1.035bn, with adjusted EBITDA in a range of $287m to $297m.

Third-quarter group revenue climbed 62.3% to $269.9m, compared with $166.3m a year earlier, while EBITDA rose 156.4% to $87.1m from $34m. For the year to date, revenue reached $653.3m, up 52.3% from $429m, and EBITDA stood at $163.7m, an increase of 86.2% from $87.9m. Free cash flow in the quarter was $54m.

The bottom line remains weaker than in 2025. The net loss for the nine months was $147.9m, up 62% from $90m in the prior-year period, although the Q3 loss narrowed to $28.8m from $15.7m, an improvement of 45.5% on the figures given. Much of the loss is linked to the lingering effects of the $1.2bn acquisition of sports media business Legend earlier this year. The deal initially weighed on the share price amid doubts from the market, but management has maintained that it was the right strategic move.

By division, Media Technology, Content and Services recorded the strongest growth, with Q3 revenue up 33.4% to $152.9m and year-to-date revenue up 110.3% to $236.8m. The Betting Technology, Content and Services division reported Q3 revenue growth of 62.3% to $269.9m, and year-to-date growth of 31.7% to $416.5m.

Prospects in prediction markets are a central part of the company's pitch. Alongside the Kalshi and Polymarket agreements, Genius launched a prediction markets comparison site called Prediction.com. Kalshi secured a $40bn valuation last week. Genius plans to draw on the data generated through its network of sports partners, which includes the Premier League and the NFL, to take part in that growing segment.

Founder and chief executive Mark Locke said the betting business, expanding media capabilities and prediction market opportunities position the company to capture greater value from the data, technology and infrastructure it has built over 25 years. He added that Legend is creating additional commercial value and that the combined scale is already showing benefits.