Prediction markets post record October as daily volume rises 55% to $4.13B, Jefferies says
Average daily volume across prediction markets reached $4.13 billion in October, a 55% monthly increase, while open interest hit $3.27 billion, according to a Jefferies report. Sports contracts made up 78% of volume.
GamblingSource: GamblingNews
Prediction markets had their strongest month on record in October, helped by the return of college football and the NFL, according to a report from Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon.
Average daily volume across the yes-or-no exchanges rose 55% from September to $4.13 billion. Open interest also set a new high, climbing 45% month over month to $3.27 billion. The figures point to broad growth, although much of the activity remains concentrated among the largest operators.
Polymarket recorded average daily volume of $655 million in October, up 50% on the previous month and 395% year over year. Its share of the platforms tracked by Jefferies stayed at 17%. Other platforms covered in the report combined for average daily volume of $309 million, up 56% monthly and 710% compared with October 2025, with their combined share steady at about 7%. Rothera, a venture between Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group that launched in June, grew its daily volume 55% to $49 million. That represented 1.2% of industry volume, down from 1.5% in September.
Sports remained the main driver. Average daily volume in sports contracts increased 55% to roughly $2.98 billion, supported by the NFL and college football seasons and the start of the 2026-27 NBA campaign. Sports accounted for 78% of total volume, unchanged from September, while its share of open interest rose to 83% from 73%.
Jefferies also observed that combination contracts, which resemble parlays at traditional sportsbooks, tend to gain activity on weekends, suggesting traders are using multi-leg positions more often for football. According to Fannon, DraftKings' DKeX appears to benefit from this trend, with a higher share of combination contracts on both weekdays and weekends.
Non-sports markets grew at the same pace as sports. Their average daily volume rose 55% to $843 million, which may reflect interest in the upcoming US midterm elections. With Election Day falling on November 4, attention could shift to other non-sports categories such as cryptocurrency and financial market contracts. The data still show how heavily the sector depends on sporting events, and broadening into politics, finance and other topics remains an important part of its development.
Based on reporting by GamblingNews.