Nevada governor race: gaming donors favour Lombardo while prediction markets lean toward Ford
Nevada votes Tuesday in a governor's race between Joe Lombardo and Aaron Ford. Gaming money has mostly gone to Lombardo, while Ford's office has led the state's fight against prediction markets.
GamblingSource: iGaming Business
Nevada voters will choose their next governor on Tuesday, picking between Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford, the state's attorney general. The outcome matters to the gaming industry in the largest regulated market in the United States.
Polls and prediction markets currently point in different directions. On Kalshi and Polymarket, traders have pushed Ford's odds above 75% in recent weeks, a reversal from August and September, when Lombardo was the favourite on both. MS NOW lists Ford ahead 45% to 44% as of Friday, while a Noble Predictive Insights result from 6 October had Lombardo up 42% to 40%. The report notes that both polls and prediction markets have missed recent outcomes, citing the 2024 US presidential election and Brazil's presidential election this month.
Lombardo has led on fundraising. The Nevada Secretary of State's Office records show he took in $6.1 million in direct contributions between 1 January and 30 September and spent $12.4 million, while Ford raised $4.9 million and spent $5.2 million. Gaming-affiliated donors have also given heavily to Nevada Way PAC, a Lombardo-backed committee that has received more than $10 million. Its largest gaming contributions include $3 million from Station Casinos, $1 million each from Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta and from Las Vegas Sands, and smaller sums from companies such as Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Wynn Resorts, MGM Resorts and Light & Wonder.
Lombardo is seen as pro-business, and gaming regulators have removed several outdated regulations at his direction. He has been endorsed by President Donald Trump. Ford's campaign has criticised a remark in which Lombardo said he has to take care of the state's gaming billionaires.
Ford has the backing of labour groups, notably Culinary Union Local 226, which endorsed him in September. He has supported the union's effort to organise Station's Red Rock Casino. A Ford-backed committee, A More Affordable Nevada, has received $11 million in contributions, including $400,000 from Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker.
On gaming policy, Ford's office has been at the forefront of opposition to prediction markets. Nevada bans sports, entertainment and election-related event contracts, and the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in the state's favour in August. Ford said the state would not let companies circumvent its protections or operate outside the law.
Based on reporting by iGaming Business.