bet365 and Betfair explain how they price Man Utd manager markets amid integrity concerns

Michael Carrick, Manchester United's manager, has become odds-on with several major UK bookmakers to be the first Premier League manager sacked in the 2026/27 season. He has won once in the club's first eight games. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair make him 4/6 favourite for the first dismissal, while Ladbrokes and Coral offer 4/9. William Hill has suspended its market.

bet365 has taken a different approach, offering 8/11 on Carrick still being in charge on New Year's Day 2027. Steve Freeth, the operator's Sports and Trading Expert, said the company prefers markets tied to a specific date that include the current manager, similar to how it handles transfer markets involving a player at his present club. If the manager survives, the market is settled on who holds the job on that date. Freeth said this differs from a Next Permanent Manager market, where the outcome may not change for a long time.

Freeth said Carrick was available at 12/1 to be United manager on 1 January, but the price shortened after much of the football world predicted his departure on Sunday evening. Following news that Carrick would stay in charge for the Chelsea game, bet365 cut the price to 5/4 after a surge of interest.

Both traders described how they adjust prices. Betfair's Senior PR Executive, James Mackie, said news sites, social media and personal opinion all feed into pricing, and that traders must keep a constant watch on developments. Freeth said pricing is based purely on opinion and that speed can matter when a high-profile journalist breaks a story. If several journalists report the same development, bet365 would suspend the market.

Integrity is a recurring concern with such markets. The article points to a 2019 breach of integrity rules involving a market on where Kieran Trippier would move next, after he told friends to back a transfer to Atlético Madrid. Bookmakers still offer these markets despite the risk.

Mackie said the international break typically brings more bets than usual on manager markets, as clubs are seen as more likely to make changes during it. He added that traders have been busy in recent weeks, with four managers alternating as favourite to leave first. Freeth said topical and volatile markets are managed differently from standard fixtures and can generate stories for the bet365 News team.