Italy's €700M gambling tax target draws doubts from lawyers and industry experts

Italy's Cabinet approved a budget worth roughly €26 billion on Wednesday, and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni confirmed that about €700 million would come from gambling. The figure is a rounding of the Draft Budgetary Plan sent to Brussels, which sets €718 million for both 2027 and 2028 and €478 million for 2029. Meloni did not say who would pay, describing the budget as not against anyone and saying those with fewer problems were asked to help. The exact measures will be known only when the bill's articles and technical reports are published.

Experts quoted by iGB expect the land-based sector to be hit hardest. Licences for slot machines, betting shops and bingo halls expire on 31 December, and a three-year effort to redraw where such venues may operate collapsed in August without a deal between Rome and the regions. With no new tenders, the state must extend current concessions, as it already does for around €232.76 million a year. Lucas Zavarise of Gaming Laboratories International said reports point to costlier extensions and a possible one-point rise in PREU, the levy on machine stakes, with limited changes online. Lawyers Quirino Mancini and Stefano Sbordoni also see paid extensions as likely, though Sbordoni warned higher charges could damage a business already under strain. ADM data show slot revenue fell 5.7% in the second quarter, and the Court of Auditors estimates tax receipts dropped by about €200 million in the first eight months of the year. Milano Finanza reported that money might instead come from the aggio on lottery sales and from online gaming.

Giulio Coraggio of DLA Piper doubts the target is achievable, arguing that any route lowers operator margins, worsens player offers and pushes customers toward offshore sites that pay no Italian tax.

Online is seen as the less likely but more sensitive option. Forty-six operators paid €7 million per licence a year ago, 35 times the old fee, on the basis of an established economic framework. Mancini conceded that concession terms do not automatically freeze taxation but said heavy new charges would undermine the credibility of the licensing system. Sbordoni said tax stability is guaranteed by primary law for the nine-year concession. Operators are also rebuilding systems for ADM's new technical rules, with the deadline pushed to 15 February 2027, and Italy's advertising ban limits their ability to offset costs.

All the experts named illegal operators as the likely winners. ADM blocked 44% more unauthorised sites in 2025 than in 2024, but Zavarise said blocking is not the whole answer. Elsewhere in Europe, the UK raised machine games duty from 20% to 25% for higher stakes machines, and the Netherlands has also raised rates, while a 1% EU-wide levy on online gambling is being floated in the European Parliament.