Brazil's betting market needs legal certainty to win back investors, adviser argues

Alex W Pariente of Pariente Advisory has set out seven questions that Brazil must answer if it wants to become investable again in iGaming. His analysis, published as an exclusive article for iGaming Business, centres on the stability of the rules rather than on advertising freedoms or low taxes that can be changed.

The article describes the current position bluntly. Since 25 October, Brazil has had no authorised betting market. The 85 licences issued under Law 14.790, which brought in grants of BRL2.55 billion ($476.2 million), expired without any refund. Provisional Measure 1,394 remains in force, Congress has not yet formed the joint committee to review it, and Supreme Federal Court Minister Luiz Fux will hear the government, associations and clubs on 3 November before ruling on requests for suspension.

The first questions concern liabilities and the form of the rules. Pariente argues that no top-tier operator will enter while earlier investors contest the BRL2.55 billion in court, noting 19 ongoing lawsuits. He also says structural changes should come through legislation, citing Spain, where the Supreme Court annulled advertising restrictions imposed by decree in 2024 because such limits require a law passed by parliament.

Other questions cover the regulator, the concession model and taxation. He points to the United Arab Emirates and Singapore, which built regulatory structures before opening, and says Brazil's Secretariat for Prizes and Bets already has data and payment control systems but needs a technical mandate and stability. On concession length, he cites Macau's 10-year renewals in 2022 and Italy's online licences of up to nine years. On tax, he notes that Colombia's 19% VAT on online gambling, created by emergency decree, was overturned by its Constitutional Court in 2026, with collected funds ordered returned. Investors, he says, prefer predictable taxes to low but changeable ones.

The final two questions address capital flows and unlicensed demand. Brazil has had a modern exchange rate framework since the end of 2022, but investors want to know whether it will apply to the sector without exception, including dividend remittances. H2 Gambling Capital projections suggest the unlicensed market could grow from about BRL17 billion to BRL42 billion. Pariente cites the Philippines, which needed a 2025 law with prison terms of up to 12 years to enforce its 2024 ban on offshore-facing operators.

Pariente does not advocate a more open or more restrictive model. He argues Brazil already has a 2023 law, a data-capable regulator, an exchange framework and trained compliance and responsible gaming professionals, and that the answers to the seven questions will weigh more with outside investors than announcements.