Bitcoin has historically gained after US midterms, but analysts see the four-year cycle as a confounding factor

Bitcoin has tended to climb in the year following US midterm elections, according to an analysis by CoinDesk ahead of the November 3 vote. Since 2009 the cryptocurrency has gone through four midterm elections. Setting aside 2010, when the market was tiny and fringe, the other three saw an average gain of 53.7% over the 12 months after Election Day.

The returns were measured from the daily close at 00:00 UTC on Election Day to the close on the same date a year later. The 2010 midterm was followed by a 1,579% surge, but that figure is considered unreliable given how small the market was at the time.

Bitcoin is currently trading in a subdued range around $80,000 after bouncing more than 35% from a low below $60,000 in June. Some analysts argue that this is the moment to buy and hold, believing a new bull run is under way. The article stresses, however, that the historical record is too short for firm conclusions.

One caveat is the four-year cycle linked to the mining reward halving, which cuts the amount of new BTC paid per block by 50% roughly every four years. After each of the four halvings so far, bitcoin rallied sharply, peaked 12 to 18 months later and then slid into a bear market. Those downturns fell in the midterm years 2014, 2018, 2022 and now 2026, so the subsequent rebounds may reflect a fresh cycle start rather than political influence.

Traditional equities show a similar seasonal pattern. Data from Hartford Funds indicates that since 1950 the S&P 500 has averaged a 15.17% gain in the year after midterms, compared with 7.30% in all other years.

The political backdrop could shift if Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress. Debates over the record federal debt and the unresolved debt limit may intensify, and, according to Brookings, President Donald Trump's request for $350 billion in mandatory defense funding may struggle. Democratic committee chairs could also examine conflicts of interest tied to the president's personal crypto profits, and Democratic lawmakers have already sent oversight letters on the matter. Even so, the Supreme Court's ruling in Trump v. Slaughter left most financial regulators under White House control, limiting what Congress could do to halt the administration's promotion of crypto. Markets have largely priced in a divided federal government.