Polymarket accounts' Ballon d'Or bets prompt France Football probe and police involvement

Suspicious activity on the prediction platform Polymarket may have targeted the Ballon d'Or, the soccer award organized by France Football. According to the report, twelve accounts created between October 1 and October 20 staked a combined $264,000 on the exact order of the top five finishers: Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi.

The pattern of account behavior has raised questions. Seven of the twelve accounts placed only this one wager, and six of those did so within 15 minutes of being created. The activity suggests that some individuals may have had advance knowledge of the results, although this has not been confirmed.

Price movements also drew attention. Contracts opened on September 29 initially implied a probability of 80% to 90% that Yamal would finish ahead of Mbappé, and that held until October 8. On October 9, with no public announcement, the implied probability fell to 55%, and by October 22 it had dropped to 28%. The source notes that no sporting event or official statement explained the shift.

France Football maintains that an independent voting process decides the winners and says the integrity of the award is among its top priorities. The organization has opened an official investigation into the betting patterns and said French police will take part. It has pledged to establish all the relevant facts and determine whether any party bears responsibility.

Polymarket is banned in France, where regulators classify its contracts as a form of gambling. The platform lacks a local license, and French internet service providers were ordered to block access, though users can still reach it through VPNs.

The case adds to the wider concern over insider trading on prediction markets. Polymarket recently faced similar allegations in Israel, where hundreds of newly registered accounts made winning bets on the general election shortly before voting closed, and some reportedly earned more than $100,000 in combined profits. The company said it would investigate and report the activity to law enforcement. In March, Polymarket introduced rules against insider trading, banning trades based on stolen information and illegal tips. Proving privileged access remains very difficult, however, particularly as the platform does not require identity verification.