Hollywood studios warn staff against insider trading on prediction markets as research flags $143M in suspicious profits

Several movie studios and production companies have sent formal warnings to staff that trading on prediction markets with insider knowledge is banned, according to The Hollywood Reporter as relayed by GamblingNews. Employees who break the rules could face disciplinary action, up to and including termination.

The restrictions reportedly cover contracts tied to sensitive industry matters such as studio earnings, casting decisions and movie release dates. Staff are also barred from passing confidential details to friends or family members who might use them to place trades.

The concern is not purely hypothetical. In February, a video editor working for YouTuber MrBeast was fired after reportedly earning $5,000 from prediction market trades linked to content involving the creator. The trades drew attention because of unusual statistical patterns. Questions have also surrounded activity on the identity of the next James Bond. Prediction markets removed contracts on the casting decision after significant money was placed on actor Callum Turner, even though industry speculation pointed toward Jack Lowden. Integrity monitors reportedly raised concerns about a possible leak. The actor has not yet been officially announced.

Entertainment has become one of the more active categories on prediction platforms, following the growth of sports and political contracts. Users have traded millions of dollars on questions such as the Oscar for Best Picture, the Dancing with the Stars winner and whether The Angry Birds Movie 3 will score above 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. Other markets are far more unusual, including whether Donald Trump will appear on Saturday Night Live.

Policing insider use may prove difficult. Columbia Law professor Joshua Mitts, who studies securities law, told The Hollywood Reporter that most informed trading is extremely hard to detect. His research counts roughly 210,000 suspicious bets on CFTC-regulated prediction markets between February 2024 and February 2026. Those trades are estimated to have generated about $143 million in profits, with the accounts recording a 70% win rate.

Operators have their own incentives to watch for abuse, since platforms seen as favoring industry insiders risk losing the trust of ordinary customers. The figures add to questions about how well the sector can manage insider activity as volumes grow, particularly after the expansion of sports contracts in late 2025 widened the audience.